For 2025, the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report lowered its estimate of total red meat and poultry production.
The estimate for 2025 broiler production was raised.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
Beef production for the year was raised 15 million pounds, or 0.06%, to 26.700 billion pounds from 26.685 billion last month as heavier dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter were expected to be offset partially by lower steer and heifer slaughter. The new estimate was down 288 million pounds, or 1.07%, from last year’s 26.988 billion pounds.
Beef export estimates for the year were lowered 135 million pounds, or 4.79%, to 2.685 billion pounds from 2.820 billion last month and down 318 million, or 10.5%, from 3.003 billion last year based on recent trade data, as well as newly imposed tariffs and non-tariff barriers faced by US beef exports to China.
Beef imports for the year were lowered 15 million pounds, or 0.31%, to 4.860 billion pounds from 4.875 billion last month but were up 225 million, or 4.85%, from 4.635 billion last year based on higher tariff rates for foreign suppliers for the remainder of the year.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
Estimated 2025 pork production was lowered on reduced slaughter and weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2025 reflected the information provided in the March 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed lower pig crops than previously reported for 2024 and indications of lower farrowings through much of 2025.
The new production estimate was 28.075 billion pounds, down 350 million, or 1.23%, from 28.425 billion last month but up 285 million, or 1.03%, from 27.790 billion last year.
2025 pork export estimates were lowered265 million pounds, or 3.67%, to 6.955 billion pounds from 7.220 billion last month and down 160 million, or 2.25%, from 7.115 billion last year because of the latest trade data, increased tariff rates for US pork shipments to China and price competition from other major exporting countries.
BROILER PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The USDA’s 2025 broiler production forecast was raised to 47.775 billion pounds, from 47.700 billion last month and from 46.994 billion last year on improved returns during the second half of the year.
Broiler export expectations were lowered on ideas of less competitive US prices during the second half of the year.
The turkey production forecast was lowered on recent hatchery and production data.
Turkey export forecasts were lowered on recent trade data and reduced domestic production.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $208.00 per cwt to $213.76, compared with last week’s range of $210.15 to $214.47 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $328.43 per cwt to $333.20, compared with $329.75 to $339.08.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $3.57 per cwt at $334.29 while select was off $54.65 at $314.96. The choice/select spread widened to $19.33 from $17.25 with 93 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $380.63 per cwt, and 50% beef was $118.39.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.83, up $0.09.
No live cattle were tendered for delivery Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $287.29 per cwt, down $3.32. This compares with Thursday’s Apr contract settlement of $282.77, down $0.97.