The USDA’s Economic Research Service forecast for 2020 red meat and poultry production Thursday was raised from last month as higher expectations for beef, pork and broiler production more than offset ideas of lower turkey production.
The new forecasts came from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which said the larger forecast in beef and pork production largely reflected a faster-than-anticipated recovery in the pace of slaughter.
The 2020 broiler production forecast was raised as broiler hatchery data pointed toward higher expected production in the second half of the year. The turkey production estimate was lowered slightly on recent production data and a slower expected growth in expansion.
The 2021 red meat and poultry production forecast was raised from the previous month.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER INTO 2021
This year’s beef production forecast was raised from last month to 26.674 billion pounds from 25.764 billion. This is an increase of 910 million pounds, or 3.53%.
The 2021 beef production forecast was raised 85 million pounds, or 0.31%, to 27.575 billion pounds from 27.490 billion on higher expected cattle placements in the second half of this year, which will be marketed to packers in 2021.
The beef import forecast was raised for 2020 to 2.974 billion pounds from 2.904 billion on recent trade data and increased domestic demand for processing grade beef, a gain of 70 million pounds, or 2.41%. The beef export forecast was raised 50 million pounds, or 1.73%, to 2.944 billion pounds from 2.894 billion on higher expected beef exports later in the year.
No change was made to the 2021 beef trade forecast with imports at 3.020 billion pounds and exports at 3.140 billion.
2021 PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UNCHANGED
The 2020 pork production estimate was raised to 27.766 billion pounds from 27.436 billion, a gain of 330 million, or 1.20%.
This month’s 2021 pork production estimate was left unchanged from last month at 28.235 billion pounds. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is scheduled to be released on June 25 and provide an indication of producers’ farrowing intentions for the second half of 2020; these are hogs that will likely be marketed to packers in first-half 2021.
The pork export forecast for 2020 was raised 50 million pounds, or 0.70%, to 7.198 billion pounds from 7.148 billion the previous month, largely on the current pace of exports. The 2020 import forecast was left unchanged at 816 million pounds.
No change is made to the 2021 pork trade forecast with imports at 855 million pounds and exports at 7.300 billion.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION FORECAST ALSO UNCHANGED
The 2021 broiler production forecast for 2021 also was left unchanged from last month at 44.975 billion pounds while the 2020 production estimate was raised 259 million pounds, or 0.59%, to 44.037 billion pounds from 43.778 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading was reported this week at $104 to $108 per cwt on a live basis, down $4 to $11 from last week and at $162 to $172 on a dressed basis, down $14 to $15.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $0.50 per cwt at $235.56, while select was off $2.96 at $219.88. The choice/select spread widened to $15.68 from $13.22 with 117 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
No deliveries were tendered for delivery against the Aug live cattle contract Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $129.38 per cwt, down $0.32. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $132.17, down $0.50.