The USDA forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production in the October World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report Wednesday was raised from last month, as higher beef, pork and broiler forecasts were offset partly by lower turkey production.
For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised on higher beef and broiler production estimates.
BEEF PRODUCTION
Beef production for 2022 was raised to 28.136 billion pounds, up 130 million, or 0.46%, from 28.006 billion last month and up 188 million, or 0.67%, from 27.948 billion last year on higher expected slaughter as well as higher carcass weights for the second half.
2023 beef production estimates were raised to 26.365 billion pounds, up 30 million, or 0.11%, from 26.335 billion last month on higher expected placements in late 2022, which will be marketed in the first half of 2023.
Beef import estimates for 2022 were lowered 25 million pounds, or 0.73%, to 3.389 billion pounds from 3.414 billion last month but raised 43 million, or 1.29%, from last year’s 3.346 billion on slower third-quarter exports.
Export estimates for 2022 were raised 10 million pounds, or 0.28%, to 3.571 billion pounds from 3.561 billion last month and were up 130 million, or 3.78%, from last year’s 3.441 billion by on the current pace of trade in the third quarter, but the forecast for the fourth quarter was unchanged.
Beef import forecasts for 2023 were raised to 3.350 billion pounds from 3.200 billion last month. 2023 exports were forecast at 3.070 billion pounds, up from 3.020 billion last month on expectations of firm demand in Asian markets.
PORK PRODUCTION
Third-quarter 2022 pork production was raised on a higher-than-expected slaughter. No change was made to the fourth-quarter forecast.
Pork production next year was forecast to be lower on expected farrowings and modest growth in pigs per litter.
Pork imports and exports were lowered for 2022 on recent data. For 2023, pork export estimates were lowered on tighter domestic supplies and weaker demand in several markets.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION
The 2022 broiler production estimate was raised on current slaughter data and higher eggs set and chicks placed.
This year’s turkey production estimate was lowered, with an increase in the third quarter more than offset by a reduction in the fourth quarter in part because of recent Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza discoveries.
The broiler production forecast for 2023 was raised on expected growth in eggs set and chicks placed during the year.
Turkey production estimates next year were lowered slightly for the first two quarters.
Broiler export forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were unchanged.
Turkey exports were lowered for 2022 but raised for 2023.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $144.00 to $148.34 per cwt, compared with last week’ range of $143.00 to $147.00. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $225.42 to $229.84 per cwt, versus $224.47 to $229.75.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.09 per cwt at $246.66 while select was up $1.41 at $214.26. The choice/select spread narrowed to $32.40 from $33.90 with 101 loads of fabricated product and 27 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $2.00 to $2.15 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $1.00 over Dec, which settled at $6.93, unchanged.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $175.04 per cwt up $0.40. This compares with Wednesday’s Oct contract settlement of $175.50, up $0.87.