The new USDA forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month as higher beef and broiler forecasts for the fourth quarter were offset partly by lower pork and turkey forecasts, the agency said in its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Wednesday.
2022 BEEF PRODUCTION UP; 2023 DOWN
The beef production estimate for this year was raised with higher expected cattle slaughter as well as higher carcass weights. The new forecast was 28.347 billion pounds, up 72 million, or 0.26%, from 28.136 billion a month ago and up 399 million, or 1.43%, from 27.948 billion in 2021.
For 2023, the beef production forecast was lowered 90 million pounds, or 0.34%, to 26.275 billion pounds from 26.365 billion last month on tighter supplies of fed cattle and lower cow slaughter. This would be down 2.072 billion pounds, or 7.31%, from the 2022 forecast.
Beef imports for 2022 were lowered to 3.376 billion pounds from 3.389 billion last month on recent data, higher expected US cow slaughter and weaker expected imports from Oceania in the fourth quarter. However, this would be up from 2021’s import total of 3.346 billion pounds.
Beef exports for 2022 were lowered 29 million pounds, or 0.81%, to 3.542 billion pounds from 3.571 billion last month on recent data and expected weaker exports to Asian markets. However, this also would be up 101 million, or 2.94%, from last year’s 3.441 billion pounds.
No changes were made to beef trade for 2023 with imports at 3.350 billion pounds and exports at 3.070 billion.
2022 PORK PRODUCTION DOWN; 2023 UP
Pork production estimates for 2022 were lowered 27 million pounds, or 0.10%, to 27.121 billion pounds from 27.148 billion a month ago and were down 554 million, or 2.00%, from 2021’s 27.675 billion on a slower expected pace of slaughter.
The 2023 pork production estimate was 27.345 billion pounds, unchanged from the October report but down 327 million, or 1.18%, from 2021.
The 2022 pork import estimate was 1.424 billion pounds, down 53 million, or 3.59%, from October’s 1.477 billion but up 244 million, or 20.7%, from 2021’s 1.180 billion. 2022 pork exports were estimated at 6.409 billion pounds, up 20 million, or 0.31%, from October’s 6.389 billion but down 617 million, or 8.78%, from 2021’s 7.026 billion. The 2023 pork export forecast was unchanged at 6.280 billion pounds.
2022, 2023 BROILER PRODUCTION UP
2022 broiler production was raised to 45.974 billion pounds from 45.899 billion a month earlier and from 2021’s 44.899 billion on current slaughter and hatchery data.
2023 Broiler production was raised to 46.825 billion pounds from 46.625 billion last month on expected growth in broiler flocks.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $152.76 to $153.77 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $150.00 to $154.40. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $236.63 to $239.43 per cwt, versus $233.15 to $242.13.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.27 per cwt at $264.67 while select was off $0.83 at $235.22. The choice/select spread widened to $29.45 from $28.89 with 111 loads of fabricated product and 31 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $2.15 to $2.25 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $1.00 over Dec, which settled at $6.64 1/2, down 3.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $176.30 per cwt down $0.29. This compares with Wednesday’s Nov contract settlement of $177.72, down $0.55.