Wednesday, the USDA’s monthly 2023 beef production forecast was raised from last month in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Wednesday.
The USDA also adjusted its 2022 red meat and poultry supply and use estimates to reflect reported December production, ending stock and trade data.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DECLINE
The latest estimate for 2022 beef production was placed at 28.290 billion pounds, down 12 million, or 0.04%, from 28.302 billion in the January report. However, this was up 342 million pounds, or 1.22%, from the 27.948 billion pounds produced in 2021.
The 2023 beef production estimate was raised 50 million pounds, or 0.19%, to 26.495 billion from the January report to 26.445 billion. This would be down from the latest 2022 estimate by 1.795 billion pounds, or 6.34%.
The 2023 cattle slaughter estimate was raised for the first quarter but was expected to be offset partly by lower carcass weights as cow slaughter was larger than previously forecast. For the second quarter, the steer and heifer slaughter estimate was lowered as fourth-quarter 2022 placements were lower than expected, implying fewer animals available for marketing in the second quarter.
Lower 2023 fed cattle slaughter, coupled with lower average carcass weights, more than offsets higher expected cow slaughter.
Projected beef imports for 2023 were raised to 3.425 billion pounds from January’s estimated 3.400 billion with a higher first-quarter forecast partially offset by lower second-quarter imports.
Exports this year were estimated at 3.090 billion pounds, unchanged from January.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE MIXED
Last year’s pork production estimate was adjusted downward to 26.995 billion pounds from 26.996 billion in the January estimate. This would be down 677 million, or 2.45%, from 2021’s production of 27.675 billion.
The 2023 pork production estimate was lowered to 27.435 billion pounds from January’s 27.480 billion, a decline of 45 million, or 0.16%, on slightly lighter first-half carcass weights.
Pork imports this year were estimated at 1.005 billion pounds, unchanged from January, while exports were pegged at 6.350 billion, also unchanged.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RISES
The 2022 broiler production estimate was reduced 44 million pounds, or 0.10%, to 46.201 billion pounds from 46.245 billion in the January report. This would be up 1.302 billion, or 2.90%, from 2021’s 44.899 billion.
The broiler production estimate for this year was reduced 200 million pounds, or 0.43%, to 46.700 billion pounds from 46.900 billion because of lower production forecasts in the first three quarters based on recent hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter.
Broiler imports were lowered to 160 million pounds from January’s 180 million, and exports were put at 7.315 billion, also steady.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $158.09 to $159.58 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $155.57 to $157.50. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $244.52 to $250.60 per cwt, versus $244.42 to $249.79.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.48 per cwt at $267.20 while select was down $4.17 at $253.16. The choice/select spread widened to $14.04 from $9.39 with 86 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.57 to $1.70 a bushel over the Mar corn contract. Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.75 over Mar, which settled at $6.78 1/2 a bushel, up $0.04 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $182.23 per cwt, up $0.94. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $187.20 per cwt, down $0.50.