The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Wednesday raised its 2023 beef production forecast from last month while lowering its pork production estimate.
The USDA also adjusted 2022 red meat and poultry supply and use estimates to reflect revisions to slaughter and production data.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
For 2023, the beef production forecast WAs raised from last month to 26.665 billion pounds up 170 million, or 0.64%, from 26.495 billion in February but down 1.625 billion, or 5.74%, from 2022’s 28.290 billion.
Slaughter projections were raised through the first three quarters of 2023 on higher cow slaughter and increased placements of cattle in feedlots in the first quarter of 2023, which likely will be marketed in the third quarter, the WASDE report said.
Beef imports this year were expected to total 3.425 billion pounds, unchanged from February projections but up 34 million, or 1.00%, from 2022’s 3.391 billion.
Beef exports this year were forecast at 3.090 billion pounds, unchanged from February but down 446 million, or 12.6%, from last year’s 3.536 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
US pork production this year was estimated at 27.410 billion pounds, down 25 million, or 0.09%, from 27.435 billion forecast in February. However, this would be up 416 million, or 1.54%, from 26.994 billion pounds produced in 2022.
The pork production estimate was lowered as a higher-than-expected pace of slaughter in the first quarter was more than offset by what was seen as lighter first-half carcass weights, the report said.
Pork imports this year was put at 1.005 billion pounds, unchanged from the February report but down 339 million, or 25.3%, from 2022’s 1.344 billion.
Pork exports for 2023 were projected at 6.350 billion pounds, unchanged from February but up 12 million, or 0.19%, from 6.338 billion in 2022.
BROILER PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
US chicken production this year was projected at 46.750 billion pounds, up 50 million, or 0.11%, from February’s estimate of 46.700 billion and up 544 million, or 1.18%, from 2022’s 46.206 billion.
The broiler production estimate was raised for the first quarter on recent hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter, the USDA said.
The estimate of broiler imports was kept at 160 million pounds, but this would be down 16 million, or 9.09%, from the 176 million in 2022.
Broiler exports this year were expected to be 7.315 billion pounds, unchanged from the February estimate, but up 37 million, or 0.51%, from the 7.278 billion pounds exported in 2022.
Turkey production this year was expected to total 5.585 billion pounds, up from February’s estimate of 5.560 billion and up from 2022’s 5.222 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $165.00 to $166.59 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $159.00 to $165.08. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $258.17 to $261.39 per cwt, versus $254.08 to $261.83.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $3.15 per cwt at $284.78 while select was up $0.63 at $278.12. The choice/select spread narrowed to $6.66 from $10.04 with 142 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.55 to $1.70 a bushel over the May corn contract. Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.75 over May, which settled at $6.25 1/2 a bushel, down $0.08 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $188.33 per cwt, up $0.29. This compares with Wednesday’s Mar contract settlement of $193.75 per cwt, up $1.62.