The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday raised its estimate of US chicken production enough to bring its forecast for 2018 meat production up, overcoming expected declines in beef pork and turkey output.
BROILER PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP
Second-quarter broiler production was raised 10.680 billion pounds from 10.640 billion on June production data, the report said, while the third-quarter production estimate was raised to 10.850 billion pounds from 10.770 billion on hatchery data and expected growth in bird weights.
The broiler production estimate for 2019 also was raised 43.420 billion pounds from 43.360 billion on lower forecast feed prices, the USDA said.
Broiler export forecasts were reduced for 2018 to 6.869 billion pounds from 6.938 billion and for 2019 to 7.045 billion pounds from 7.100 billion last month on weaker-than-expected demand.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
The decline in 2018 beef production to 27.094 billion pounds from 27.150 billion reflected an expected slower pace of marketings in the third quarter, the USDA said. Cow slaughter estimates were raised, but recent carcass weight data and a larger proportion of cows in the slaughter mix led to a reduction in expected carcass weight during the second half of the year.
The beef production forecast for 2019 was raised to 27.720 billion pounds from 27.690 billion on ideas of heavier carcass weights next year.
Beef export forecasts were raised for 2018 to 3.124 billion pounds from July’s 3.070 billion and for 2019 to 3.205 billion from 3.165 billion on expectations of continued strong global demand.
For 2018, second-quarter beef imports were reduced on June trade data, while the forecasts for the outlying quarters and into 2019 were unchanged.
Fed steer price forecasts were raised slightly for 2018 to $115 to $117 per cwt from $114 to $117 but were left unchanged for 2019 at $$113 to $122.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE REDUCED
Forecast 2018 pork production was reduced to 26.710 billion pounds from 26.745 billion a month ago on a slower expected pace of slaughter during the last half of the year, the report said.
For 2019, the pork production forecast was raised from July to 27.875 billion pounds from 27.700 billion on higher expected hog slaughter in the first part of the year and heavier carcass weights.
Second-quarter pork imports for 2018 were lowered slightly on recent trade data, but the forecasts for the outlying quarters and into 2019 were not changed. The second-quarter pork export forecast was adjusted for June data, while the forecast for the rest of 2018 and into 2019 was reduced slightly on expected competition in several markets.
Butcher hog price forecasts were lowered to $44 to $45 per cwt from $45 to $46 for 2018 and to $39 to $42 from $40 to $44 for 2019.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
No fed cattle sales were reported Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange Video Auction. A week earlier, 851 head sold at an average price of $110.07 per cwt, down from the last sale at $112 two weeks previous.
Cash cattle trade took place last week at $110 to mostly $111 per cwt on a live basis, down $3 from the previous week, and at $175 to $179 dressed, down $3 to up $1.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $0.55 per cwt at $206.61, while select was off $0.32 at $197.77. The choice/select spread widened to $8.84 from $7.97 with 66 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Thursday, was $151.12 per cwt, up $0.67. This compares with Friday’s Aug settlement of $149.90, up $0.55.