The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Tuesday raised its estimate of 2018 total red meat and poultry production as higher beef and poultry production forecasts more than offset lower pork production.
The USDA made the estimates in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. For 2019, the total red meat and poultry forecast was lowered from last month’s estimate on lower expected beef and broiler production.
BEEF
The report said the increase in 2018 beef production reflected a faster pace of steer and heifer slaughter, which was mitigated somewhat by lower carcass weights. Specifically, the report forecast beef production this year at 26.939 billion pounds, up 25.0 million, or 0.09%, from 26.914 billion in November and up 752 million, or 2.87%, from 26.187 billion last year.
The 2019 beef production forecast was lowered to reflect slightly lighter carcass weights in early 2019. The new estimate is 27.785 billion pounds, down 25 million, or 0.09%, from 27.810 in the November report. However, this would be up 846 million pounds, or 3.14%, from the new 2018 estimate.
Beef import forecasts for 2018 were reduced 10 million pounds, or 0.33%, to 3.004 billion pounds from 3.014 billion the previous month. The 2019 beef import forecast also was reduced, in this case to 3.020 billion pounds from 3.060 billion last month, a decline of 40 million pounds, or 1.31%.
Both beef import forecasts were trimmed on lowered expected exportable supplies of processing grade beef from Australia.
No change is made to beef export forecasts for 2018 and 2019, which came to 3.190 billion and 3.265 billion pounds, respectively.
The average annual fed steer price forecast for 2018 was raised to $116.91 per cwt, up $0.12, or 0.10%, from $116.79 on recent price strength, but the 2019 forecast was unchanged from the previous month at a range of $114 to $122.
PORK
In contrast, the lowered pork production forecast was based on ideas smaller expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter would more than offsetting heavier carcass weights.
Annual 2018 pork production was estimated at 26.310 billion pounds, down 10 million, or 0.04%, from 26.320 billion in the November report, but up 726 million, or 2.84%, from 2017’s 25.584 billion. The 2019 production estimate of 27.715 billion pounds would be up 1.405 billion, or 5.34%, from the new 2018 estimate.
Pork import estimates for 2018 and 2019 were unchanged at 1.059 and 1.060 billion pounds, respectively. This compares with 2017 imports of 1.116 billion pounds.
Pork exports for 2018 were estimated at 5.984 billion pounds, unchanged from the November estimate, but the 2019 pork export forecast was raised to 6.450 billion pounds from 6.200 billion. This compares with 2017 exports of 5.632 billion pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
At the Fed Cattle Exchange video auction last Wednesday, 219 head of fed cattle sold at an average $117.83 per cwt, up from $116.75 the previous Wednesday.
Cash cattle traded Tuesday at $187 per cwt on a dressed basis to a regional packer in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, steady with last week.
Cash cattle traded last week late at $118 to mostly $119 per cwt on a live basis, steady to up $0.50 from the previous week. On a dressed basis, cattle traded at $187, up $3.50 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.96 per cwt at $214.46, while select was up $0.45 at $201.39. The choice/select spread narrowed to $13.07 from $14.48 with 118 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
No delivery notices were served for Dec live cattle.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Monday, was $144.96 per cwt, up $0.96. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan settlement of $147.30, up $2.27.