The USDA’s December forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production was raised from last month as higher fourth-quarter pork and broiler forecasts were offset partially by lower turkey output.
The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released Friday.
2023 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN STEADY
The USDA’s 2023 beef production estimate was unchanged at 29.932 million pounds with lower expected cattle slaughter offset by higher dressed weights.
For 2024, the beef production forecast was raised 180,000 pounds, or 0.70%, to 25.990 million pounds from 25.810 million because of higher cattle slaughter and higher dressed weights.
Beef import estimates for 2023 were raised 10,000 pounds, or 0.27%, to 3.663 million pounds from 3.653 million on recent data, but the estimate for exports were lowered 5,000 pounds, or 0.16%, to 3.030 million from 3.035 million.
Import estimates were raised for 2024 on expectations of demand for processing-grade beef. The new estimate was 3.700 million pounds, up 10,000, or 0.27%, from 3.690 million.
The new 2023 beef export estimate was 3.030 million pounds, down 5,000, or 0.16%, from 3.035 million, while the new 2024 beef export estimate was left unchanged at 2.845 million pounds.
2023 PORK PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2023 pork production estimate was raised 25,000 pounds, or 0.09%, to 27.242 million pounds from 27.217 million on higher fourth-quarter slaughter.
The 2024 pork production forecast was unchanged at 27.730 million pounds. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled to be published Dec. 22, was expected to provide estimates of the pig crops and producer farrowing intentions affecting 2024 production.
The forecast for 2023 pork imports was raised 35,000 pounds, or 3.09%, to 1.169 million pounds from 1.134 million on recent data. The 2023 pork export forecast was 6.749 million pounds, up 15,000 pounds, or 0.22%, from 6.734 million.
The pork import forecast for 2024 was raised 40,000 pounds, or 3.40%, to 1.215 million pounds from 1.175 million on a continued pace of shipments from Canada. Pork export expectations for 2024 were lowered to 6.850 million pounds from 6.950 million because of weaker demand from Asian markets.
2023 CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
Broiler production for 2023 was raised to 46.373 million pounds from 46.209 million on current slaughter and hatchery data, while the turkey production estimate was lowered on recent slaughter data.
Broiler production for 2024 was lowered to 46.625 million pounds from 46.650 million on recent hatchery data.
The broiler export forecast for 2023 was raised to 7.205 million pounds from 7.180 million on recent trade data, but the 2024 export forecast was lowered to 7.245 million from 7.270 million.
Turkey for production for 2024 was lowered based on recent hatchery data and weaker expected returns.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $172.57 per cwt to $180.00, compared with the previous week’s range of $174.33 to $178.97 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $274.30 per cwt to $279.24, compared with $278.23 to $280.42.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $1.83 per cwt at $288.01 while select was down $0.93 at $257.90. The choice/select spread narrowed to $30.11 from $31.01 with 135 loads of fabricated product and 32 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.35 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.85 1/2 a bushel, down $0.02 1/2.
No delivery intentions were posted for Dec live cattle Friday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $220.04 per cwt, down $2.22. This compares with Friday’s Jan contract settlement of $215.30, up $5.02.