The USDA Tuesday raised its estimate of total red meat and poultry production for 2025 on higher beef and chicken production forecasts from February’s report, which was offset partially by lower pork and turkey production forecasts.
However, the new beef production estimate was down from 2024 and 2023, while pork and broiler production were forecast to be up from last year and 2023.
BEEF OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP
The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report said this month’s higher beef production forecast was because of heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter rates. The 2025 beef production estimate was for 26.685 billion pounds, up 120 million, or 0.45%, from 26.565 billion a month earlier but down 303 million, or 1.12%, from 26.988 billion last year and down 282 million, or 1.05%, from 26.967 billion in 2023.
The beef export forecast for 2025 of 2.820 billion pounds was raised 25 million, or 0.89%, from 2.795 billion last month, with increased production allowing for additional supplies in the second half of the year. Still, this was 183 million, or 6.09%, less than 2024’s 3.003 billion pounds and 218 million, or 7.18%, less than 2023’s 3.038 billion.
Beef import expectations were raised from February, 2024 and 2023 on strong shipments during January and continued strong demand for lean processing beef. The new estimate was 4.875 billion pounds, up from 4.770 billion last month, up from 4.635 billion last year and up from 3.725 billion in 2023.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DOWN
The 2025 pork production estimate was lowered 105 million pounds, or 0.37%, to 28.425 billion pounds from 28.530 billion in February on a slower rate of first-quarter slaughter, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. However, it was up 635 million, or 2.28%, from 2024’s 27.790 billion pounds and up 1.123 billion, or 4.11%, from 2023’s 27.302 billion.
The USDA is scheduled to release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, providing a further indication of hog supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year.
Pork exports this year were reduced 75 million pounds, or 1.03%, to 7.220 billion pounds from 7.295 billion in February on lower expected domestic supplies and increased global price competition. But they were expected to be up 105 million pounds, or 1.48%, from 7.115 billion pounds last year and up 396 million, or 5.80%, from 6.824 billion in 2023.
2025 pork imports were pegged at 1.115 billion pounds, down from 1.170 billion a month ago, down from 1.148 billion a year ago and down from 1.142 billion two years ago.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $197.87 per cwt to $198.92, compared with last week’s range of $197.00 to $203.12 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $310.61 per cwt to $314.20, compared with $310.62 to $313.95.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $3.62 per cwt at $321.20 while select was down $0.09 at $306.86. The choice/select spread widened to $14.34 from $10.53 with 126 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $378.85 per cwt, and 50% beef was $118.79.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.32 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.70 1/4, down $0.01 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $276.54 per cwt, up $2.59. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $277.50, up $0.45.