The USDA’s latest 2021 red meat production forecast was reduced in Thursday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from last month on lighter carcass forecasts and reduced slaughter.
For 2022, the red meat and poultry production forecast was reduced as lower expected beef production more than offset slightly higher pork production estimates.
2021 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
In addition to lighter carcass weight estimates, the 2021 beef production forecast was based on a higher-than-expected proportion of non-fed cattle being slaughtered through the end of the year.
2021 beef production was estimated at 27.872 billion pounds, down 33 million, or 0.12%, from July’s 27.905 billion. It also was down 698 million pounds, or 2.57%, from last year’s 27.174 billion.
For 2022, the beef production forecast was lowered to 26.965 billion pounds from 27.325 billion last month, a decline of 360 million pounds, or 1.32%, on tighter expected supplies of fed and non-fed cattle.
For 2021, beef import estimates were raised to 3.117 billion pounds from 3.021 billion in July on recent trade data and expected firm demand from several key trading countries; the import forecast for 2022 also was raised, going to 3.150 billion pounds from 2.990 billion.
Beef export forecasts were lowered for 2021 and 2022 on slowing global demand for US beef. The 2021 export forecast was 3.384 billion pounds, compared with 3.422 billion in July, while the 2022 export forecast was 3.270 billion pounds, versus 3.320 billion a month ago.
2021 PORK PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
2021 pork production was pegged at 27.824 billion pounds, down 327 million, or 1.16%, from July’s estimate of 28.151 billion and down 479 million, or 1.69%, from last year’s 28.303 billion.
Pork production next year was forecast at 28.145 billion pounds, 25 million, or 0.09%, higher than July’s estimate of 28.120 billion as slightly heavier carcass weights more than offset lower expected slaughter.
Pork export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were reduced from last month on recent trade data and continued slower demand growth from Asia; the new numbers were 7.409 billion pounds and 7.300 billion, respectively, versus July’s 7.552 billion and 7.550 billion, respectively.
2021 CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2021 broiler production estimate was raised from last month as higher-than-expected second-quarter production more than offset a lowered second-half forecast.
2021 chicken production was estimated at 44.734 billion pounds, up 41 million, or 0.09%, from 44.693 billion a month ago and up 151 million, or 0.34%, from last year’s 44.583 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported a formula base price for live FOB fed steers Thursday of $124.96 per cwt and for FOB fed heifers of $121.88. FOB dressed steers went for $194.60, while FOB dressed heifers sold at $193.32.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $7.13 per cwt at $317.93, while select was up $2.32 at $290.31. The choice/select spread widened to $27.62 from $22.81 with 60 loads of fabricated product and 37 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Thursday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.90 to $2.00 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.70 over Sep, which settled at $5.67 a bushel, up $0.10 3/4.
There were 34 heifer and six steer live cattle contracts retendered for delivery Thursday at two and one heifer and 21 steer contracts tendered at one, along with 22 heifer and three steer contracts at zero.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $156.25 per cwt up $0.06. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $158.70 per cwt, down $0.07.