The USDA’s monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report for 2026, said the total red meat and poultry production estimate was raised as higher estimated beef and pork production partially offsets a lower broiler and turkey production estimate.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2026 beef production estimate was raised to 25.920 billion pounds from 25.735 billion in the January report on forecasts for greater slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights. However, this was down from 2025’s revised production estimate of 26.001 billion pounds.
The USDA’s January Cattle (Inventory) report estimated that the 2025 calf crop was lower than the previous year, but as of Jan. 1, more cattle held outside feedlots were available to be placed during the first half of 2026.
The beef import estimate for 2026 was raised 50 million pounds, or 0.90%, to 5.575 billion pounds from 5.525 billion in January on continued strong demand for lean processing beef and the recent agreement between the US and Argentina that increases its beef import quota. This would be up 181 million pounds, or 3.36%, from the latest 2025 estimate of 5.394 billion pounds.
The beef export estimate was unchanged from January at 2.425 billion pounds but was lowered 143 million pounds, or 5.57%, from the 2025 estimate of 2.568 billion pounds.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2026 pork production estimate was raised 60 million pounds, or 0.21%, to 28.275 billion pounds from 28.215 billion in the January report on forecasts for higher slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights during the first half of the year based on recent slaughter data.
That would be up 698 million pounds, or 2.53%, from the 2025 production estimate of 27.577 billion pounds.
The pork export estimate was raised 50 million pounds, or 0.71%, to 7.135 billion pounds from 7.085 billion on more exportable supplies and improved competitiveness. This would be up 153 million pounds, or 2.19%, from the 2025 export estimate of 6.982 billion pounds.
The 2026 pork import estimate was left unchanged from the January estimate of 1.145 billion pounds, which would be up 33 million, or 2.97%, from the revised 2025 import estimate of 1.112 billion.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The 2026 broiler production estimate was lowered 100 million pounds, or 0.21%, to 48.500 billion pounds, from the January estimate of 48.600 billion 2026 on recent production and hatchery data.
Broiler exports were reduced to6.670 billion pounds from January’s 6.715 billion on recent trade data and more competition expected in key markets.
The 2026 turkey production estimate also was lowered for the first quarter of the year, bringing total production to 4.965 billion pounds from January’s estimate of 4.975 billion on production data and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related culling.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $241.68 per cwt to $245.15, compared with last week’s range of $236.32 to $242.85 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $376.57 per cwt to $384.92, compared with $369.10 to $380.59.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.21 per cwt at $367.55 while select was down $2.45 at $362.90. The choice/select spread widened to $4.65 from $2.41 with 91 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $418.62 per cwt, and 50% beef was $157.39.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.98 to $1.12 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.28 3/4, unchanged.
No live cattle delivery intentions were posted Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $373.83 per cwt, down $0.83. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $364.77, down $2.67.