The USDA, in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday lowered its red meat and poultry production estimate for 2022 from last month as higher fourth-quarter broiler and turkey production was more than offset by lower beef and pork production.
Changes reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December, the report said.
2023 BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED
The 2022 beef production forecast was 28.302 billion pounds, down 115 million, or 0.40%, from the December projection of 28.417 billion but up 354,000, or 1.27%, from the 2021 total of 27.948 billion, the USDA said.
The 2023, beef production forecast was raised to 26.445 billion pounds, up 170,000, or 0.65%, from 26.275 billion in December with higher expected slaughter of steers and heifers, as well as cows and bulls, the USDA said. This estimate increase was offset slightly by lower carcass weights.
Beef export estimates for 2022 of 3.542 billion pounds were lowered from December’s estimate of 3.562 billion, and imports were left unchanged at 3.376 billion on recent trade data, the USDA said. For 2023, the beef import estimate was raised to 3.400 billion pounds from 3.350 billion in December, largely on higher expected imports from Brazil, but the export forecast was left unchanged at 3.090 billion.
2023 PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED
The 2022 pork production estimate was 26.996 billion pounds, down 65 million, or 0.24%, from December’s 27.061 billion and down 679 million, or 2.45%, from 2021’s 27.675-billion-pound output.
The pork production estimate for 2023 was raised 135 million pounds, or 0.49%, to 27.480 billion pounds, from December’s 27.345 billion, reflecting pig crop data for the second half of 2022 and producer intentions for sow farrowing in the first half of this year, the USDA said.
The pork import estimate for 2022 was lowered 55 million pounds, or 3.93%, to 1.344 billion pounds from 1.399 billion in December, but export expectations were unchanged at 6.334 billion, the report said.
For 2023, pork import estimates were lowered 135 million pounds, or 0.49%, to 27.495 billion pounds from 27.360 billion in December, but exports were raised 70 million pounds, or 1.11%, to 6.350 billion from 6.280 billion.
2023 CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE REDUCED
The USDA’s first-quarter 2023 broiler production estimate of 11.475 billion pounds was reduced based on recent hatchery data, the report said. The annual estimate was 46.900 billion pounds, down from December’s 46.925 billion.
Broiler exports in 2022 were raised to 7.282 billion pounds from 7.262 billion on recent trade data, while 2023 exports were lowered to 7.315 billion from 7.345 billion.
The 2023 turkey production estimate was raised to 5.560 billion pounds from 5.550 billion on hatchery data.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $157.00 to $158.85 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $150.00 to $159.50. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $246.75 to $250.61 per cwt, versus $245.58 to $251.79.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $3.24 per cwt at $277.49 while select was off $1.09 at $257.01. The choice/select spread narrowed to $20.48 from $22.63 with 105 loads of fabricated product and 27 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains was unchanged at $1.95 to $2.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract. Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.85 over the Mar, which settled at $6.71 a bushel, up $0.15.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $182.36 per cwt up $0.04. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $182.12 per cwt, down $1.00.