The latest USDA forecast for 2021 total red meat and poultry production was raised from last month in Tuesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast was raised slightly from last month. Beef and turkey production forecasts were raised, while the pork and broiler production forecasts were unchanged from October.
LARGER BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST
Beef production for 2021 was raised to 27.885 billion pounds from 27.832 billion in the October report on higher expected fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. This was a gain of 53 million pounds, or 0.19%. The new estimate also was up 711 million pounds, or 2.62%, from 2020’s production of 27.174 billion pounds.
The 2022 beef production estimate was raised from the October report to 27.000 billion pounds from 26.995 billion, a gain of 5 million, or 0.02%.
The 2021 and 2022 beef import forecasts were raised from October on robust domestic demand for beef. The new 2021 import forecast was 3.260 billion pounds, up from 3.187 billion, and the new 2022 forecast was 3.240 billion, up from 3.165 billion.
The 2021 beef export forecast was raised on recent trade data and continued strong demand from top trading partners to 3.455 billion pounds, compared with 3.414 billion.
No change was made to the 2022 beef export forecast or 3.270 billion pounds.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP SLIGHTLY
The 2021 pork production forecast was raised slightly to 27.678 billion pounds from October’s estimate of 27.674 billion as heavier carcass weights more than offset lower expected fourth-quarter slaughter. This was a gain of only 4 million pounds, or 0.01% from October but was down from last year’s 28.303 billion pounds of production.
The 2022 pork production estimate was left unchanged from October at 27.585 billion pounds but still was a decline from this year’s estimated production.
The 2021 pork import forecast was raised to 1.145 billion pounds from 1.107 billion last month, and the export forecast went to 7.193 billion from 7.199 billion.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMNATE RAISED
The 2021 broiler production forecast was raised 104 million pounds, or 0.23%, to 44.828 billion pounds from 44.724 billion in the October estimate on recent hatchery and slaughter data. This new estimate also would be more than 2020’s production of 44.583 billion pounds.
The 2022 chicken production estimate was left unchanged at 45.240 billion pounds.
The 2021 turkey production estimate was raised to 4.612 billion pounds from October’s 5.609 billion on September production data. This would be less than 2020’s 5.743 billion pounds. The 2022 production estimate was 5.700 billion pounds, up from October’s estimate of 5.695 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $129.52 to $130.40 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $125.93 to $127.88. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $197.79 to $202.55 per cwt, versus $195.39 to $198.32.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.85 per cwt at $287.80, while select was up $2.02 at $270.62. The choice/select spread narrowed to $17.18 from $20.05 with 156 loads of fabricated product and 44 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Tuesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.40 over Dec, which settled at $5.54 3/4 a bushel, up $0.03 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $154.86 per cwt up $0.24. This compares with Tuesday’s Nov contract settlement of $157.90 per cwt, down $0.67.