The USDA’s September forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production was raised Thursday from last month on higher beef, pork and broiler forecasts.
For 2025, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised to 25.625 million pounds from August’s estimate of 25.445 million with beef production up on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
2024 BEEF PRODUCTION RAISED
In the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2024 beef production forecast was raised to 26.795 million pounds from 26.736 million last month on expectations for higher cow slaughter and heavier fed cattle weights in the second half of the year. However, this was down from 2023’s 26.967 million pounds.
This year’s beef import estimate was raised to 4.328 million pounds from 4.188 million last month. This also was up from 3.725 million last year. Beef export estimates were raised to 2.990 million pounds from 2.940 million last month, but this was down from last year’s 3.038 million.
Next year, beef exports were expected to total 2.600 million pounds, up from August’s estimate of 2.500 million.
2024 PORK PRODUCTION RAISED
This year’s pork production forecast was raised for the second half of 2024 with a faster expected pace of slaughter, but slightly lighter carcass weights. The new estimate was 28.053 million pounds, compared with 28.048 million last month and 27.302 million last year.
The 2025 pork production forecast was reduced to 28.505 million pounds from 28.550 million last month on ideas of slower expected growth in carcass weights.
The USDA is scheduled to release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Sep. 26, providing a further indication of hog supplies available for slaughter in the first half of 2025.
This year, pork imports were forecast at 1.188 million pounds, unchanged from August but up from 1.142 million last year. Pork exports this year were forecast at 7.182 million pounds, up from 7.122 million last month and up from 6.824 million in 2023.
2024 CHICKEN PRODUCTION RAISED
The 2024 broiler production estimate was raised to 47.109 million pounds from 46.876 million last month on current slaughter and hatchery data pointing toward more chicks placed in the third and fourth quarters. The new estimate also is more than last year’s 46.387 million pounds.
The broiler production estimate for next year was raised to 47.675 million pounds from 47.500 million in August as producers respond to improving margins.
Chicken exports this year were predicted at 6.766 million pounds, down from 6.776 million last month and down from 7.260 million last year. Next year’s export estimate was left unchanged at 6.875 million pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $179.95 per cwt to $183.14, compared with last week’s range of $181.21 to $188.70 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $285.10 per cwt to $288.24, compared with $287.36 to $291.88.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $0.18 per cwt at $307.18 while select was up $1.26 at $295.64. The choice/select spread narrowed to $11.54 from $12.98 with 115 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $365.64 per cwt, and 50% beef was $119.04.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.31 to $1.41 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.06 a bushel, up $0.01 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $241.90 per cwt, down $1.14. This compares with Thursday’s Sep contract settlement of $242.05, up $1.50.