The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday said total red meat and poultry production estimate for 2021 was reduced from last month as lower broiler and turkey production forecasts more than offset higher beef and pork production estimates.
For 2022, the total red meat and poultry production estimate was raised from last month.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
The 2021 beef production forecast was raised 10 million pounds, or 1.03%, to 27.895 billion from 27.885 billion on higher fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
2022 beef production forecasts were left unchanged at 27.000 billion pounds from the previous month’s WASDE report.
Beef import forecasts were raised 55 million pounds, or 1.69%, to 3.315 billion, from 3.260 billion for 2021 and 25 million, or 0.77%, to 3.265 billion from 3.240 billion in 2022. No change was made to export forecasts of 3.455 billion and 3.270 billion, respectively.
Steer prices for this year were expected to average $122.56 per cwt, down from November’s estimate of $121.31. For next year, steer prices were expected to average $135.00 per cwt, up from $130.00 in last month’s report.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE ALSO UP
Estimated 2021 pork production was increased 55 million pounds, or 0.20%, to 27.733 billion from 27.678 billion a month ago on the current pace of hog slaughter.
The 2022 pork production forecast was raised 10 million pounds, or 0.04%, to 27.595 billion, from 27.585 billion on heavier carcass weights.
The 2021 pork export forecast was reduced 30 million pounds, or 0.42%, to 7.163 billion from 7.193 billion last month largely on weaker import demand from China. The 2022 pork export estimate was unchanged at 7.405 billion pounds.
2021 hog prices were seen at $67.20 per cwt, down from $67.45 a month ago. 2022 prices were unchanged at $60.00.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWER
Forecast 2021 broiler production was reduced 98 million pounds, or 0.22%, to 44.730 billion pounds from 44.828 billion on recent hatchery and slaughter data while the turkey production forecast was lowered 20 million pounds, or 0.36%, to 5.592 billion from 5.612 billion on recent slaughter data.
The 2022 broiler production estimate was raised 260 million pounds, or 0.57%, to 45.500 billion from 45.240 billion as higher prices were expected to support expanding production.
Broiler export forecasts were unchanged for 2021 at 7.545 billion pounds, but forecasts were raised for 2022 to 7.500 billion from 7.565 billion on stronger expected demand.
The turkey production estimate for next year was lowered to 5.640 billion pounds from 5.700 billion last month, a decline of 60 million, or 1.05%.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $140.55 to $143.75 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $138.98 to $140.92. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $219.10 to $222.88 per cwt, versus $209.66 to $220.75.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.44 per cwt at $264.55, while select was off $1.41 at $251.68. The choice/select spread widened to $12.87 from $11.02 with 135 loads of fabricated product and 70 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Thursday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the Dec futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.40 over Dec, which settled at $5.88 1/2 a bushel, up $0.03 3/4.
No delivery intentions were posted against the Dec live cattle contract Thursday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $161.63 per cwt up $0.47. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $164.07 per cwt, up $0.67.