The USDA’s US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 was raised from the June report, as higher poultry production more than offset lower red meat production estimates, the USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday.
2026 BEEF PRODUCTION OUTLOOK LOWERED
The 2026 beef production estimate was lowered to 25.288 billion pounds from June’s 25.438 billion pounds because of an expected slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year. The decrease in steer and heifer slaughter more than offset a forecasted increase in cow slaughter. Dressed weight estimates also were lowered in the second and third quarters.
For 2027, the beef production forecast was lowered to 25.200 billion pounds from June’s 25.385-billion-pound estimate, as expected decreased feedlot placements in 2026 and a slower pace of marketings reduce total steer and heifer slaughter.
Expected beef exports for 2026 were lowered to 2.331 billion pounds from 2.341 billion in June based on recent trade data but were unchanged at 2.325 billion pounds for the remainder of the year and for 2027.
Beef import forecasts for 2026 were lowered to 6.059 billion pounds from 6.109 billion in June on recent trade data but were left unchanged for the remainder of the year and for 2027, which was at 6.000 billion pounds.
2026 PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DOWN SLIGHTLY
The 2026 pork production estimate was lowered slightly to 27.955 billion pounds from 27.995 billion in June, as ideas of reduced slaughter for the second half of the year more than offset forecasts for heavier dressed weights. The current outlook for 2026 hog slaughter reflects the information provided in the June 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that indicated lower pig crops in the first half of 2026 and indications of lower year-over-year farrowings in the second half of 2026.
The 2027 pork production estimate was lowered to 28.1354 billion pounds from 28.290 billion in June based on a smaller expected pig crop following the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The reduction in expected slaughter more than offset forecasts for heavier dressed weights.
Pork export estimates were lowered for 2026 to 7.237 billion pounds from June’s 7.252 billion based on weaker than expected shipments to the Western Hemisphere but were raised slightly in the third quarter. Pork export forecasts were unchanged in 2027 at 7.330 billion pounds.
2026 CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2026 broiler production estimate was raised to 49.552 billion pounds from 49.552 billion a month ago on recent slaughter data and producers responding to favorable margins.
The 2027 broiler production estimate was raised to 49.900 billion pounds from 49.900 billion pounds from 49.700 billion on continued favorable margins supporting production growth.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $254.99 per cwt to $258.00, compared with the previous week’s range of $255.83 to $260.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $400.75 per cwt to $407.21, compared with $405.60 to $410.81.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was up $1.87 per cwt at $382.68 while select was up $4.80 at $368.33. The choice/select spread narrowed to $14.35, from $17.32 with 74 loads of fabricated product and 16 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $466.50 per cwt, and 50% beef was $179.85.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.23 to $1.43 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.38 a bushel, up $0.10 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $370.42 per cwt, down $4.03. This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $354.60, down $1.55.