Ongoing weather conditions and longer-term structural adjustments in agriculture suggest that beef cow herd rebuilding will continue to be a slow process, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner.
BEEF COW HERD AT CYCLICAL LOW?
The Jan. 1 beef cow inventory was 27.607 million head, down 1.0% from one year ago, Peel said. The beef cow herd has decreased a total of 4.033 million head since the cyclical peak in 2019, a decrease of 12.7%t. The beef cow herd may be at a cyclical low in 2026, though it is uncertain and likely depends on weather conditions in coming weeks.
A slight increase in beef replacement heifers in the latest data raises hopes that some momentum for heifer retention is building that would lead to eventual herd rebuilding, Peel said. This raises questions about where the most herd liquidation has occurred and where herd rebuilding might be most likely.
A DISPROPORTIONATE DECLINE
A proportionally larger share of herd liquidation occurred in the heart of beef cow production regions, he said. In 2019, 13 states in the middle of the country accounted for 64.6% of the total herd but by 2026, the share had dropped to 63.1%. The herd inventory change in these 13 states in the past seven years totaled 3.0 million head, 74.3% of the total herd decrease.
The top five states remained in the same rank order though all have significantly lower beef cow inventories in 2026, Peel said. Among the top five states, Texas decreased the most in absolute terms, but South Dakota lost the largest percentage, followed closely by Nebraska.
Oklahoma decreased the smallest amount, in part because of a small increase in the beef cow inventory from 2025 to 2026, he said. Kansas experienced the largest percentage decrease among major beef cow states and dropped from number six to seven in the top ten rankings.
Montana, though down 14.9%, moved ahead of Kansas into the number sox place, Peel said. The North Dakota beef cow inventory is down 8.6% from 2019 and puts the state up one place from number nine to eight. North Dakota, along with Oklahoma and Florida, was one of three top 10 states that showed an increase in the beef cow inventory from 2025 to 2026.
Florida, with just a 4.6% decrease in the beef cow herd, moved into ninth place, while Kentucky dropped from eighth to 10th place, he said. Arkansas was number 10 in 2019 and dropped to 11th in 2026.
There is little doubt that drought from 2021-2025 prompted much of the beef cow herd liquidation in major beef cow states, Peel said. Continuing drought conditions and drought threats likely will keep cattle producers cautious and hesitant to restock.
CROP PRODUCTION CHANGES
Changes in crop production and land use also are factors in some areas, he said. From 2019 to 2025, US corn and soybean planted acreage increased by 8.6%, an increase of 14.2 million acres.
In South Dakota, planted crop acreage increased by 3.38 million acres, up 24.5% from 2019 to 2026, with corn and soybean acreage up by 52.2%, Peel said. Simultaneously, hay acreage decreased by 710,000 acres.
It appears increased crop production likely will limit herd rebuilding in South Dakota, he said. Increased crop production also may limit herd rebuilding in the Midwest and eastern regions of Great Plains states including Kansas, Nebraska and North Dakota, along with South Dakota.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $234.91 per cwt to $248.00, compared with last week’s range of $239.92 to $246.64 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $369.34 per cwt to $377.44, compared with $376.66 to $382.97.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $1.45 per cwt at $400.30 while select was off $3.72 at $392.45. The choice/select spread narrowed to $7.85 from $5.58 with 67 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $443.24 per cwt, and 50% beef was $190.12
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.05 a bushel over the May corn contract, which settled at $4.69 3/4, up $0.06 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $360.69 per cwt, up $2.37. This compares with Thursday’s Mar contract settlement of $355.27, down $3.45.