The USDA’s World Outlook Board Friday reduced its estimate of 2017 total red meat and poultry production by 64 million pounds, or 0.06%, to 100.091 billion from 100.155 billion last month.
The WOB’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report said that based on preliminary data, beef and turkey production estimates were lowered, more than offsetting higher pork and broiler production.
For 2018, the total red meat and poultry production forecast was raised 367 million pounds, or 0.35%, from a month earlier to 103.938 billion from 103.571 billion as higher expected pork, beef and broiler production offsets lower turkey production.
For 2018, livestock and broiler trade forecasts remained unchanged from last month.
BEEF
The 2018 beef production forecast was raised to 27.760 billion pounds from 27.590 billion a month earlier, as higher feedlot placements in late 2017 were expected to result in higher fed cattle slaughter in the first half of the year. Average carcass weights also were expected to be heavier.
The USDA is to release its semi-annual Cattle Inventory report on Jan. 31, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2018.
Beef import estimates were increased for 2017 to 2.976 billion pounds from 2.966 billion a month ago on increased shipments from overseas. No change was made to export estimates of 2.875 billion pounds.
The 2018 steer price estimate was raised to $114 to $122 pounds per cwt from $113 to $122 a month earlier, reflecting early year price strength.
PORK
The 2018 pork production forecast also was raised – rising to 26.960 billion pounds from 26.915 billion a month ago. The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 3% above 2016 which supports a higher first-half production forecast.
The Hogs and Pigs report also indicated producers expected to expand farrowings about 3% in the first half of the year, which, coupled with continued gains in pigs per litter, supported higher second-half production estimates.
Pork export estimates for 2017 were raised to 5.623 billion pounds from the December estimate of 5.588 billion, reflecting the pace of trade to date, but no change was made to the pork import number of 2.976 billion pounds.
The first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast was raised to $48 to $50 pounds per cwt from December’s $47 to $49, reflecting recent price strength and firm demand.
POULTRY
Forecast broiler production was raised for 2018 to 42.450 billion pounds from 42.275 billion a month ago on favorable returns. Turkey production was reduced to 6.000 billion pounds from 6.025 billion based on continued weak demand.
Broiler import and export estimates were raised for 2017, reflecting recent trade data.
First- and second-quarter broiler price forecasts were raised on recent price strength and continued strong demand.
Turkey price forecasts for 2018 were lowered on recent price movements and continued weakness in demand.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle traded last week at $119.50 to $121 per cwt on a live basis, mostly $120, down $1.50 to $2 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trade took place at $192, down $3.
Fed cattle then sold Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange video auction at $119.
The USDA’s choice cutout Friday was down $0.20 per cwt at $208.03, while select was up $0.40 at $202.04. The choice/select spread narrowed to $5.99 from $6.12 with only 52 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Thursday was $146.80 per cwt, down $2.01. This compares with Friday’s Jan settlement of $144.35, up $0.52.